Friday, June 19, 2009

Follow up - Affordable Housing

I took a moment to glance at the interest paid on a single $38,000 mortgage at 8% over 30 years.

$62,378.99

Yup, $62 thousand for the lendor's revenue.

If you filled an entire 10,000 unit gaiaship with $40,000 condos - the lucky lender would make 624 BILLION dollars.


So how much space would that really take up?

10,000 units at 800 square feet: 8 million square feet. Divide that by 4 stories: 2 million square feet per story. (I anticipate the gaiaship actually using upward to 5-7 stories on average with parking, retail and office space; but we're talking living space & mortgages only here. )

To break that down into acres: about 46 acres.
10,000 units - maybe 18 thousand people - living on 46 acres.

To give you some context - the latest announcements from Austin is the 'City within a city' being proposed has 8,700 living units for about 13,000 people, retail & park spaces on 350 acres.

Affordable Housing

I've seen a *ton* of things in the news lately about affordable housing, especially in the context of new urban designs and sustainable housing, and thought I should codify what the general thinking is around how much we're supposed to spend on housing and whether the GaiaShip could be considered 'affordable'.

From the Texas State Web site:
Thousands of working Texans need low-cost homes in the $30,000 to $50,000 range. However, builders find it less profitable on a per-house basis to build very low-cost homes than those that will sell for somewhat higher prices, because builder profits are typically figured as a percentage of the cost of construction of the house. Housing providers told TPR that most builders would have a hard time profitably producing very many houses that cost less than $60,000--the type typically affordable to workers earning $12 to $14 an hour. Unfortunately, even a $60,000 house is too expensive for at least one of every seven Texas workers.


Gross Annual
Income
After Tax Net Percent For housing Per month
$30,000 75% $22,500 30% $6,750 $563
$40,000 75% $30,000 30% $9,000 $750
$50,000 75% $37,500 30% $11,250 $938
$60,000 75% $45,000 30% $13,500 $1,125
$70,000 75% $52,500 30% $15,750 $1,313
$80,000 75% $60,000 30% $18,000 $1,500

To dissect this I've looked at the range of incomes that fall into the currently accepted 'norm' for low income housing - yes $80K annuallly is at the upper end of the 'lower income' spectrum given multi income households and isn't that hard to understand given median incomes for some of the urban areas like downtown Austin.
We want 'affordable' housing in dense downtown areas because that's where a significant number of service jobs are as well as mass transit infrastructure that is necessary to maintain a high standard of living for lower and middle income folks. Cars are *expensive* and the more you do to remove that burdon from a lower income family the better.

The usual thinking is that spending approximatly 30% of your budget annually on housing (and related bills) is appropriate. Given that I just went through a refi and was able to get my own housing costs into this range I feel pretty good about my situation - however that's only after *years* of hard work on my credit rating, record low interest rates and nearly 6 years of spending a *much* higher ratio (up to 70% of annual take-home) on housing.

Now, could you own a GaiaShip condo for $560 per month? Rent - sure! But ownership & equity investment would have to come with some kind of supplemental right!? (answer is no). The usual excuse is that "It would just be too hard to get the material costs low enough to support a space of any decent size." Let's really examine this objection.

Some builders say they can cut the cost of construction to as little as $25 to $30 per square foot for traditional construction, lowering the replacement cost of an 800-square-foot house to about $20,000. The Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs has begun a pilot project using "panelized" construction methods that employ pre-cut wall panels that could cut construction costs while increasing each home's energy efficiency.
(emphasis mine)

So panelized building could bring costs *below* $25 per square foot!?

Price Per Square Foot
$25 $30
800 Sq Ft $20,000 Total Build Cost $24,000 Total Build Cost
1000 $25,000 $30,000
1200 $30,000 $36,000
1500 $37,000 $45,000
2000 $50,000 $60,000

Something tells me that making this affordable for purchase might not be so hard!. Lets add 20K on top of the cost for actual construction of the home for all the 'extras' and land cost (mitigated somewhat by stacking condos vertically) that people usually like to upgrade from the 'average' quality reflected above and amortise that over a 15 and 30 year period. What's the monthly payment? I'm simplifying from here out to using only 25 per sq foot for expediency.

Assumptions: 8% interest since we're talking slightly higher risk folks here - I can't justify using the epically low rates we see in todays' market.
I'm using the UFCU mortgage calculator though there are lots of good calcs out there online.

Sq Ft Total Condo Cost Down Payment (5%) 15 Year Monthly Payment 30 Year Monthly Payment
800 $40,000 $2,000 $363 $279
1000 $45,000 $2,250 $409 $314
1200 $50,000 $2,500 $454 $349
1500 $57,500 $2,875 $522 $401
2000 $70,000 $3,500 $636 $488

Take a look at that - $363 for an 800 sqaure foot place! $636 per month for a 2000 square foot place!!! And that's looking at ownership in 15 years! This means that a person making a mere 30,000 per year with a budget of 1/3 of their income could easily afford a 2000 square foot home. That's larger than my current house right now by the way!!

Affordable housing is the name of this game!! Panelized & Factory built, highly efficient and 'green' components can and *will* drive the price of building a fairly large home down into the usual cost of the standard cinderblock house.
In 1998, Mexico's Corporación Geo, S.A. de C.V., and Beazer Homes USA, Inc., came together to test a Mexican low-cost construction technique in El Paso, with the goal of building concrete block homes selling for $30,000 to $40,000 each... This joint venture plans to keep costs low by erecting on-site concrete-block factories and building one subdivision at a time--and by figuring in large down-payment subsidies financed by the Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation, an arm of TDHCA.
So, you're a wanna be homeowner; building equity in a community and a home. You buy a ultra green condo that saves you vast sums of money in energy costs; has vacation resort levels of amenities; easy access to shopping and nearly eliminates all requriments for vehicle ownership!!

Yeah - I think we got "Affordable Housing" covered. I so enjoy planning to change the world.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Ahh Berkley

How do I love thee,

Let me count the ways:



Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Linky

I've been busy playing lately and have found little time to organize my thoughts enough to tell you anything really really cool... but I found a couple of really cool links





Gaiaships on the sea National Geographic


http://www.data.gov/ FINALLY a solution to the *horrible* state of data publishing in our government. Now if they just need to hurry up with all those datasets :)

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Greenhouses and printed buildings



Couple of fun bits today: greenhouse in cali that produces 20 times more tomatoes per acre than a conventional farm... but costs a million an acre to build.  



And the even cooler tech: D_Shape: 

The d_shape building process is similar to the “printing” process because the system operates by straining a binder on a sand layer. This is similar to what an ink-jet printer does on a sheet of paper. This principle allows the architect to design fantastically complex architectural structures.





Think about what 3d printing is doing for smaller items like this 'woven' bracelet:  http://www.shapeways.com/

Now scale that up to multi-story buildings.  

I'm thinking an extension of this would be awesome for the GaiaShip.  Think about printing out your building's interior.  

Monday, May 4, 2009

The great and powerful google ad algorythm

I stuck them below the fold because I'm actually not terribly interested in generating revenue from them... rather I was more curious about what the great and powerful google would present as ads next to my posts.  

And, If I happen to get a bit of cash from the rare clicky event - sweet!

Friday, May 1, 2009

Minor Milestone

Hah, I got my first spam comment.  

It's deleted of course - but it's fun to know something found me :) .  Of course it was on the post about smart grids... where I rehash other peoples news; not anything with my own comments. 

Sigh - good thing I don't rely on this as an income source.  


Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Follow up - Smart Grid

NPR has another couple of good bits on the smart grid; and how the utilities are using 'greenwashing' to sell their plans for major power lines.  

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103415232&ft=1&f=1001

Also - this interactive map of the power grid *really* opened my eyes as to why nukes are so popular in the energy generation world.  They make metric shit-tons of power: 



Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Smart Meters

Recently there has been a lot of talk about what a smart grid is.. or what it could look like.  

Having read a few things on this, especially this piece on NPR's site recently, I thought I'd expound a bit and hopefully clarify what the smart grid really is.  

A bit of background:
Right now, our power distribution system runs like a giant bath tub.  (There are big pipes between the different nationwide bath tubs that allow power to be fed from one to another... but note that those pipes leak heavily and a lot of electricity is wasted in transport. )  Every power generating system out there feeds into this bathtub of power and as more power is pulled out... more power must be fed in to keep it at the same level. This variation in power is what causes changes in the hourly price of electricity.  As more expensive power generation systems are brought online to fill the tub - the price of electricity varies.  

Consumer/business level equipment: Meters that report usage back to a central database.  Web sites that report on that database. Smart appliances and software to more directly manage usage with time of day and calender restrictions. All of this is within reach; once a standard protocol or two is specified for this power management system. I fully expect power companies to offer discounts to people who drastically or even automatically restrict their electric power consumption when electric prices are at peak levels.  

For the consumer the smart grid is going to include a web site that allows you to understand how much electricity you are using.  As the NPR piece put it: wasting electricity is like leaving the water sprinkler going long after your yard has overflowed and it's flowing down the gutter. This web site, or rather web sites will be hosted by your power company, google, or any number of other service providers to try and 'help' you (read advertise to you) on ways to cut back on your usage.  Overall, these web sites will be awesome for helping many people cut back on their electric bills.  I foresee a plethora of web applications that will tie in things like remotely turning off and on your lights, TVs, computers, even the whole house's breaker box or perhaps just zones of the house with smart networked breakers.  Appliances will tie into these applications and people will begin to manage how and when they run - based on the current cost of electricity. Home automation systems are going to get a big bump from efforts to make the consumer level grid smarter.  

For the business the smart grid will be less about micromanaging the electricity usage... and more about gross usage.  You'll see computers being shut off more, and older less efficient computers replaced once a company can see the actual numbers change in their own versions of the above web sites.  You'll likely even see a push to get people out of the office and perhaps working from home once they see the new 'electricity cost per person'; and then again, perhaps not. Perhaps that electricity cost will simply be passed to the employee as a 'benefit' that is part of their total compensation.  For companies that have some control over their buildings; I foresee many looking for ways to alter the building to be more efficient; and a market blossoming around efficient office spaces.  Big windows will be OK - if they are sealed well. Daylighting and light piping into the interior spaces in order to cut down on electricity usage will be greatly desired. Companies may even begin to source their equipment on how *few* little lights are on them.  Think about all those power strips in use with a small light that always runs - that's what is called a power vampire.  That network switch with little blinking lights - shut the lights off when they are not needed;  For many of the more advanced things like computers and network switches - it's merely a matter of a bios upgrade; but there has to be a demand for it.  

For the electric industry the smart grid means something completely different.
The industry's 'smart grid' is more about upgrading their transformers and major power distribution centers to be networked and remotely controlled.  Does it surprise you that most of those big fenced off transformer areas are dumb?  In the past; the monitoring that is done on those systems is 'is this circuit on?' or 'how much power is flowing?' If you're lucky there might be a security camera or two.  I've even heard of some companies putting up cameras aimed at the meters to be able to check the meter remotely!!!  When something goes wrong an alarm sounds at the central office and someone is dispatched to take a look at what went wrong.  

If all this sounds like it's decades old tech - that's because it is.  The power distribution system was designed originally almost a century ago, with some fairly minor 'upgrades' since then.The 1950's and 60's saw a major nationwide deployment of electrical infrastructure that has basically sat in place ever since. When the industry talks about a 'smart grid' what they are talking about is a *major* revamp of the way they monitor and control power at all these switching and generator stations. 

One additional driving force behind upgrading out nations electrical infrastructure is the fundamental, but slowly building shift from huge central, fossil fuel, nuclear and major hydro power stations; to a massively distributed alternative 'green' energy system. Right now our power system is designed to flow one direction: from the big generators toward the electrical consumer. With the entire nation beginning to focus on smaller, distributed generation systems like rooftop solar power or wind turbines the grid has to be modified if it wants to take advantage of that power generation.  
Here, it's a safety thing. With the power only flowing one way - you can cut off the power at the source - like flipping the breaker in your homes breaker box and safely work with the wiring.  When you have power coming at you from a bunch of different directions - it's a lot harder to stop the flow of electricity.  Right now, many American power companies have basically said that solar and other alternative energy systems can *only* feed the location they are designed for and are *not* allowed to feed their extra power back to the grid. A one-way valve is installed that allows power to circulate locally, but not back into the big bathtub. This drastically reduces the value of these systems as the option of selling surplus energy to the pool of power is not allowed and that energy is basically dumped. 
Some places in Europe have taken a different, and much more progressive tack.  They subsidise their solar panel installations by forcing the power companies (government run usually) to buy back the surplus generation from alternative energy installations.  This created a sea change in those locations.  Solar power systems cannot be installed fast enough.  Because all of a sudden, instead of getting a power bill every month; individual consumers and companies can get a CHECK.  It becomes an income stream and drastically reduces the payoff period for solar system installations.  In America right now, no power company is doing this; though I have high hopes for Austin Energy to come around fairly soon.  Once they do - I'm moving away from the deregulated Oncor system, even though I can buy my Green Mountain alternative energy and into Austin proper.  I'll set up a 10Kwh solar system and get a check every month instead of a bill. 

This consumer stuff above is the marketing fluff and 'green' spin the electric industry is using to help get the average Joe willing to spend money on it. Smart meters are nifty tech and will catch on in a big way... but the real push for the 'smart grid' is the upgrading and advanced networking of the major power distribution systems.  

So, now you know.  

Monday, April 27, 2009

Shopping for a home - Part 3

This elevator was all glass; dark at the moment because the lobby wasn't all that special; but as we began to rise my eyes went wide and my wife's jaw dropped.

On one side of us; a huge column of water teeming with fish rose soaring to the ceiling; the three other sides opened into a teeming multi-layer jungle of plants birds and bees. Flowers and fruit were everywhere. Several people in white coveralls wandered through the place; either harvesting the ripe fruits or waving instruments over them.

The windows darkened slightly as we emerged above the canopy and the light from the windows and solar lights shone in. Then, oddly the elevator came to a stop - seemingly suspended in air. I hadn't notice Brian manipulating the controls.

"The first level is currently set up for a tropical environment. This quarter of the floor is in high summer. The other three quarters of the building arc around this central aqua-farm. We use tinting in the windows and climate control systems to modify the seasons for the plants; though we follow an Alaska summer inspired season cycle - with lots of long days. The plants love it and as such tend to produce much more volume. Our winters are more likely to follow a Texas winter schedule... a couple of frosts and then we're back as quickly as possible to spring again. We actually are able to squeeze in nearly two years of crop cycles annually and since we're rotating the quads through the seasons; we always have the whole years worth of produce available"

I turned reluctantly from the window where every color of song bird danced and darted above the trees; and was captivated by the majesty of the central water column. A couple of huge fish swam past; chasing a school of smaller, faster fish.  "Did you say this was a fish farm?" I asked quietly.  Not sure why I lowered my voice... habit I guess from other trips to see large aquariums with the kids.  

"Yes; the fish play a vital role in our process here. We basically have an artificial ecosystem here.  We pre-process the sludge and water waste from the rest of the facility in an artificial swamp.  That we keep below ground because it's not exactly scenic... and it tends to smell like... lets just say tours don't usually go in there.  We harvest methane and other gasses from the bio-processor and of course use it to generate electricity.  From there the water and remainder of the liquid waste is channeled to an algae farm - some of which generates the bio-diesel that runs the trucks and trains that come through here.  Unfortunately we're still on the waiting list for the new all electric trucks.  Any surplus of the bio-diesel is sold to the surrounding area's truck-stops and trains. There's a good market still for the long-haul interstate truckers.  After the algae processes it; we feed the fish with that emulsion.  The fish do their thing and we use the fish waste and water to irrigate the plants in here, and the facilities green roofs.  We have been experimenting with the mix of fish we have in the aquarium; looking for an ideal mix of market desire; and eco-system maintenance.  The freshwater tilapia is really popular in the on-site restaurants"  Brian makes a face.  "Though I'll admit I'm a bit tired of it.  I'm really hoping the rainbow trout do well."  

My wife finally closed her mouth enough to squeak out..."All the beautiful birds!?"

Brian smiled "Pollinators! We need something to move pollen around.  The combination of birds is mostly pollinators; but we have a few owls and hawks in here as well to help control the population and weed out the sickly.  Some of the plants actually require bats to pollinate them; we have a couple of different species of bat in the facility.  The imported fruit bats are kept indoors since the outside climate isn't suitable for them; but the Mexican free-tails are given free reign of the next floor as well as the rest of the facility.  We love our bats because they also help keep the insect populations in check. We actually built them a couple of artificial 'caves' to roost where we can control their guano habit."

Brian started the elevator again and we began to rise slowly.  We rose through a thick ceiling and emerged into a dense hydroponic farm.  Plants were carefully managed and groomed to grow in specific ways - their roots cradled in long covered trays from which a mist curled. Their branches trimmed and pruned to allow optimal penetration of light and access to the over-abundance of fruits.  Again, people in white coveralls moved through the area either picking or inspecting the produce.  Large fans moved air around and caused branches and leaves to vibrate.  This time though; Brian didn't stop the elevator and we kept going; penetrating another 3 floors of dense hydroponically supported farming.  "A lot of people work here!?" I asked.

"Yes, it's the facility's largest employer. We actually have a waiting list of applicants to work here too.  By working in local businesses; many people get a housing stipend.  It's not enough to get a place like what you guys are considering; but it's enough to get you a small apartment and a full meal ticket.  It's very popular with the students.  We really like to support people living and working here on-site.  If you or your wife set up your work here, you too would become eligible for the stipend."  

The elevator ride stopped in a rather plush restaurant lobby.  There was a stand for a host but no-one was manning the station.  "This place opens for dinner in a couple of hours but we're here for the view so we can just go on in."  As we emerged from the lobby I noticed that we were in a large donut shaped room.  The central core being the kitchen and tables spread out on levels like a wedding cake - tiered down so that everyone had a great view of the outside.  We started down the stairs towards the walls and I noticed an odd light shining against my legs and looked back. The tiers we were walking on were actually the top of the giant aquarium.  You could see into the top levels of the water column and the light shining out from it bathed the interior of the restaurant with a cool glow.  

We walked to the window walls and I noticed that the side facing the sun was darkened, as well as the side directly opposite.  I understood the logic of the sunward side... but not the opposite so I headed that direction.  My wife and Brian followed me and I realized the reason for the tint when I looked out and down at what seemed like acres of reflections.  All of the windows and solar panel patio covers were aimed in such a way to reflect the sunlight back at the tower we were standing in.  I covered my eyes and tried to see why the windows, supposedly vertical,  were reflecting so much light up at us.  Brian deduced what I was squinting at: "The window walls are polarized as well as laser cut to produce a high reflectivity while still remaining transparent.  We love our sunlighting but the problem of windows is pretty universal.  Lots and lots of solar heat energy can penetrate the building at a window.  In the cooler climates it's a good thing... here in the south it's a lot more useful to deflect that heat energy.  We designed the windows to reflect a significant portion of the solar rays back to where they are most useful - growing the food we need to eat. If I was to show you the guts of this building - you'd see light-pipes that penetrate from the walls all throughout those thick ceilings - channeling that sunlight deep into the interior of the building."  We almost never have to use electricity during the day to light the interior of this; or much of the main facility either.  At night is of course a different story but we have really efficient lighting that takes over."

I stood at the window and contemplated all of the small touches and design elements that went into this place.  It was obsessively eco-friendly, but not obtrusively in your face about it.  The restaurant I stood in looked like any other high-end downtown eatery; better actually because of the view.  The elevator ride was built to awe... and it was awesome.  I was only beginning to see the value in having your food grown this close by; carbon footprint and all that jazz.  I had once done an analysis and was shocked to see that much of the fruit my wife loved so much was flown in daily from South America and Australia. I knew there was no way to stop her from wanting that fruit; even in the dead of winter when it costs the most; so I had not bothered caring about my carbon footprint since then.  It just wasn't worth the hassle.  

Even the buildings I looked at seemed 'typical' if a bit on the over-built side.  Tiers of condos snaked around the place in a single unified building.  Like layers on a South American pyramid the condos were stair stepped up to five floors above the central garden, though the height varied to as low as 3 stories.  It was certainly more visually interesting than the usual apartment complex where the exact same building looked like it was scattered across the landscape - with the areas between filled with parking lots and tiny green spaces if you were lucky.  Here there were no visible parking lots.  A couple of golf-cart like vehicles were in use and the tour-group from earlier was now outside getting ready to ride around on those silly two wheeled segways; but no cars were visible.  

I kept looking around and Brian waited patiently for the next question.  My gaze moved over the new trees and my attention caught on a waterfall pouring into the valley between the buildings and running off in a stream across the roof of the mall.  The source looked like a mansion perched on one of the highest points of the facility; though with the number of people moving around up there it wasn't likely a residence.  I noticed that a wedding was in progress just as my wife exclaimed 'Awww'.  Yup, she had seen it too.  Brian spoke up. The wedding was happening at the local community center.  It was a combination hang-out, convention center and special event hotspot for the residents.  There was the usual: sport courts; meeting center and a big gym though it wasn't the only one in the place; apparently Curves had established several franchises throughout the building at the request of the women residents.  Brian mentioned that there were several good sized meeting halls and auditoriums that during the week were either rented to local businesses or used for college classes and seminars hosted by the community college.  "We'll do a walk through on the way back to my office." He finished.  

Nodding and putting more questions on that to the back burner; I began to walk the perimeter of the tower.  We came around and stopped again where we could see the newest construction.  "Is that where we would buy?" 

"Not necessarily.  You have the option of several different locations depending on the layout you choose as well as the amount of square feet you ultimately decide upon.  The park level is the most expensive per square foot; the closer you get to the newer construction it gets a bit cheaper to help attract people to the new space.  The mini-mansions you see all along the roofline are typically owned by corporations or wealthy individuals; they aren't exactly in your price range. "  We have a couple of smaller spaces still available towards the core of the building but given your initial requirements I'd say you're likely looking at something round about there."  Brian pointed towards an area that looked freshly built - but the plants hadn't yet gone in.  "The plantings on your patio space are yours to choose; from a list we provide of course.  We have to be careful to ensure that the plants can't break through their pots into the lower floors.  Many people like the climbing vines as you will be able to tell once summer really takes hold here.  Almost the entire south wall turns into a riot of green and flowers. "

I focused again on the new construction.  Massive steel framing was being covered by concrete.  I was no engineer - but again the word 'overbuilt' came to mind.  Most buildings and houses are mere frames - using as little material as possible.  I'd seen more than a couple of high-rises being built from my down-town office.  Here it looked like they were using a *lot* more concrete than normal; and every floor had a half-height floor between it.  I assumed the half-floor was for the 'droids' though why they needed an entire floor I wasn't sure.  However; even some of the major load bearing interior walls were being poured thickly with more concrete.  All in all; this place was being built to last a *long* time.  I turned to Brian: "Why are you building this thing so sturdy - is it because of the plants on the roof?"  

"That's part of it, though not the whole story.  The designers of this place have leveraged a basic property of a really old fundamental of construction - Thermal Mass.  The more mass is in the walls; the more regulated the temperature will be.  If you've ever dug into the dirt of your back-yard during the summer; you've probably noticed that the ground is a lot cooler than the air.  The large amount of concrete in the walls and the soil on the roof keep the interior so cool; we actually have to heat it slightly even in the middle of the summer.  The half height floor you see is partially for the utility systems (we don't need to tear up floors to access the utilities); partially for the droids; but mostly for moving air around in the interior to keep the temperature to a human comfortable level.  Adding this much mass to the building costs a bit extra for the initial construction; but over the life of the building it reduces the energy cost to keep it comfortable to near zero."  

"Would you like a closer look?  We can head down to see a couple of the recently sold places going in."